Fabric Stash: The Price of Cotton

Despite the decade's recent movement toward natural fibers, this year you are going to see fashions made of fabrics other than cotton.  Get ready for polyester, everyone.

A textured woven cotton from my own collection.  I would love a wardrobe made from this bright, cheery, airy cotton...right now I have a chair covered in it!

Excessive amounts of rain in India and flooding in Australia and Pakistan has destroyed much of the world's cotton crops.  In a time when world demand for cotton is at an all time high (the USDA estimates the 2010-11 production at 115.25 million bales, up 14% from the previous harvest, and still creating tight supply-demand margins; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703786804576138230153490312.html), ease of availability for mills has been compromised.  For the first time in three decades, the price of cotton soared above $1 to $2.0402 in February, a 40% increase since January--amazing when you consider the 7 cent increase limit per pound per day dictated by the exchange.  Prices hit $2.44/lb in early March.

At first, the financial buzz was that retailers would have to raise their clothing prices; but in these money-crunching days, many companies are already struggling to keep consumers buying, so it seems that clothing prices will remain just about the same and stores margins will suffer.  This month Old Navy/Gap revealed that their choice to raise garment unit prices about 20% higher than last year has resulted in a first quarter drop in profits of 23%.  However, the rising sourcing costs are expected to surpass the higher ticket prices by the end of the year.  Retailers are still buying their 2011 Holiday and 2012 Spring merchandise, so Christmas will most likely be the best tell on the monetary impact for consumers and retailers.  http://www.just-style.com/analysis/gap-knocked-by-soaring-cotton-costs_id111161.aspx

What does this mean for the costume industry?  Hard to say...at Villanova, we have a huge modern show, Museum, coming up in the Spring; we shall see how the shopping goes.

What I would like to know is how these cotton prices are affecting the consumer in the fabric stores.  Is it easier to raise the prices on retail fabrics than it is to back-pedal on prices of clothing already hanging in the stores?

Cotton prices recently plunged down to $1.56 for July as demand has recently fallen to match more closely the current supply.  However, the Department of Agriculture has not changed projected demand for next year, and as mills look at purchasing next year's crops at the start of the next marketing year (Aug. 1), they find the U.S.'s largest grower, West Texas, in severe drought.  This may hurt quality of product more than quantity, but still keep availability at a low and prices high next year.  http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203869804576327362083435884.html?mod=BOL_twm_mw

And so, after gas prices have driven up the cost of purchasing fabrics for building costumes (trucking and delivery), now the cost of cotton--a fabric that is easy to work with and maintain for theatrical costumes--will also cost more.  This will effect our shop even if we buy wools and silks an polyesters as we use muslin regularly for costume mock-ups and a cotton fabric called pocketing for interlining suits and bodices.  And what of cotton threads and notions such as boning tapes?  We also have a large period show, Carousel, to plan for.

Only time will tell, but the trickle down effect is inevitable.  If we plan to make fewer clothes to offset fabric costs, then what will the cost of ready made garments be?  even if we start pulling shows, the cost of "skins" (tees, socks, etc.) is already at an all-time high.  And then what about the labor time/jobs potentially lost?

Of course, I am taking the issue to an extreme; but it is interesting to think of our business as connected with the rest of the world rather than insular and isolated as is so common in theater and shops...

Has anyone noticed any changes in the costs of supplies and fabrics?  Clothing?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703786804576138230153490312.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ec725da0-3a77-11e0-9c65-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Mz7WFXwR
http://www.just-style.com/analysis/gap-knocked-by-soaring-cotton-costs_id111161.aspx
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203869804576327362083435884.html?mod=BOL_twm_mw
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203869804576327362083435884.html?mod=BOL_twm_mw